Saigon, Afghanistan?Cork Graham | Category: Africa, Asia, Cultural, Europe, Historical, Latin America, Mexico, Middle East, Military/LE, North America, Psychological, Sociological, Strategies
There is an ever-increasing possibility that the United States and its allies could possibly lose the fight in Afghanistan. I’m often asked, what could that mean for the world at large?
Looking back at the years from 1954 until 1991, we have some very solid evidence of what could happen. In part it has already started with cleric-backed Iranian terrorists breaching the wall of the US Embassy on November 4, 1979. The effects of that failure by the US to defend its soil (and that’s what embassies are supposed: be the soil of the diplomatic corp’s nation), was a call to arms by every militant Muslim fanatic.
In another part of pre-2000 history, but no less similarly, the fall of Saigon, South Vietnam was a rallying to Communist insurgents in every nation of Latin American, Southeast Asia and Africa to ramp up their efforts to overthrow their ruling governments—financed, trained and supplied by the Soviet Union, Cuba and Vietnam.
If Afghanistan falls, it will be that same rallying call to every Arab world insurgent and global terrorist organization to increase attacks on American embassies, and the cities of the US and its allies. As you do more research, you’ll quickly begin to realize that the “Muslim Fanatic Terrorism” fronts that have popped up are very much replicating the global terrorism efforts of Lenin and Stalin during the early years of the Soviet Union.
To many who were not actually fighting against Communism in places like El Salvador, Nicaragua and Angola, the wars in those countries were simply revolutions unto themselves. For those of us who were actually there fighting, and not getting half-truths as bystanding journalists, there was very prominent evidence of the global effort to step from nation to nation, turning the world into what the true Marxist-Leninist had always envisioned: a world completely under the hammer and sickle–much like the Islamic fanatic terrorist, the Communists were fighting for keeps!
Many think that the battle between North and South Korea would have been fought no matter what, because of the political aspirations of Kim Il Sung. Does that still not mean that Stalin realized an opportunity to further his attack on the free world?
The question to ask in relation to any enemy of the US and its allies is not whether North Korea would have attacked South Korea. The question to ask is whether Russia would have supplied all North Korea’s MIGs, and pilots to secretly fly those jets in combat, or that Communist China basically kept North Korean forces from annihilation, and ultimately bring peace to the Korean Peninsula, by crossing the Yalu River.
The next question to ask is not whether Ho Chi Minh was a communist his whole life as a revolutionary (Uncle Ho joined the French Communist party back in the 1920s when he went to Paris to become a chef: much like Fidel Castro, Ho was misjudged by the unknowing public to be only a liberator of his country—many would argue that he simply switched masters for his country), but how many of his fellow non-Communist revolutionaries he had executed immediately after he took power.
His rise to power both domestically and internationally follows almost exactly the guide book for Marxist take over in every insurgency that has occurred since 1918: instigate unrest through terrorism, align with other enemies of the state, and finally, once the ruling government has been destroyed, assassinate all non-Communist insurgents.
The best way to look at the Taliban in Afghanistan, is to look at them as the Maoist revolutionaries in China during WWII, and Al Queda as the Marxist-Leninist in 1917. While the Taliban are focused on allying with the Karzai government, their whole reason for doing so is to prevent annihilation, and to gain a foothold in the government. Many think that by drawing the Taliban into the government they will remove the water through which the “fish” (insurgents) can swim, much in the same way that land ownership reform helped in cutting propaganda efforts of the Communist Salvadoran insurgents (FMLN) from 1985 to end of the war.
The difference is that in Afghanistan, drawing in the highly xenophobic Taliban, whose only ability to succeed will be through total removal of any dissenting voice, is actually going to be used like a Trojan Horse, enabling them to carry on further anarchy, but this time from the inside. It will be disruption that will leave them as the only ones standing as the US and its allies depart, and the disruption increases for fervor.
So, out of Afghanistan, what could happen?
Much like the Communist revolutionaries in Africa and Latin America, like Raul and Fidel Castro, the leaders of the present global terrorist organizations will take the failure in Afghanistan as a call to arms step up attacks around the world and countries like Somalia already hanging by a thread…and more importantly, and this where it really gets bad: they’ll get more globally organized.
Think of the present Muslim Fanatic Terrorist (MFT) as very much like the Bolsheviks in their unity and disunity, on a global level, of course, because of the ability to communicate and instigate through the Internet. Think of what they’ll become in the future, like the more organized Soviet Union, and much like the government in Iran during the reign of the Ayatollah Khomeni, except (and this is the really scary part): without the reins the Ayatollah had on him through the support or non-support of the Soviet Union—many people forget that he, like many terrorist leaders of the 1960s and 1970s sought and received asylum and support from the Soviet Union, waiting to return and kick out the Shah.
We supported Saddam Hussein. The Soviets supported the Ayatollah in Iran; and then the Soviets tried to do the same with their Communist puppet in Afghanistan, finally getting sucked into a no-win situation in the Soviet-Afghanistan hot war. Now we’re in Afghanistan and fighting a war with similarly corrupt government officials that alienate the people while filling their own pockets with opium revenues and siphon global financial aid. We have what, if permitted to escalate, could possibly turn into something much more dire.
How it could happen is that the anger that has been building in the Middle East reaches a tipping point that can’t be turned back with reason. This is the point when the majority of people are no longer fighting for a better life, but for a metaphysical ideal completely outside physical reality. It’s when the Muslim world reaches this point in mass that it will fall in on itself…but it won’t go alone!
If the US and its allies don’t leave Afghanistan with a clear sense of peace and victory, the MFT, and especially new emboldened recruits and potential recruits, will take it as a clear sign that US and its allies don’t take their part of the world seriously. And, if the MFT takes his part of the world seriously, they’ll be able to succeed where in the past they wouldn’t have against interpreted US resolve: in the Middle East and in how nations relate to each other, it’s ALL about interpretation.
Terrorist attacks will increase in the capitols of Arabic nations, causing overreaction by their governments. In places like Saudi Arabia and Egypt, where there’s already a large feeling of discontent among the citizenry, public response will be overwhelming. This will be amplified through the efforts of foreign Arabs and Iranians, providing communications and arms keep the fires burning.
Once the Saudi royalty is toppled, the front will carry on to other Arab nations, implementing a Islamic form of “Liberation Theology”—Liberation Theology started as a Catholic-based front to shift a nation’s wealth to its poor in Latin America, but was quickly utilized by Communist insurgents to draw the previously resistant populace to their cause.
Ironically, this movement in the Middle East after the fall of Afghanistan, will be a reverse invasion of Arabia by Iran that was initiated in 642 A.D. when the Muslims invaded Persia and toppled the Sassanid Dynasty, the peak of Persian civilization (do you think it’s a coincidence that Iran continues to arm Islamic terrorists in Iraq and that Mesopotamia was conquered by the Persians in 641 A.D…perhaps some of you history buffs might recall that Marxist Ho Chi Minh’s goal was to unite all of French Indochina under Hanoi’s rule, and that he would have succeeded had he lived—setting up genocide in Cambodia by aiding Maoist Pol Pot, serving as an excuse for Vietnam to invade and gain Kampuchea in 1978; and creating a loyal puppet regime in Laos with the Pathet Lao, founding members of the Indochinese Communist Party of the 1930s, a loyalty that lasted until seven years after Uncle Ho’s death?).
With a good stronghold in the Middle East, MFTs will continue terrorist attacks in Europe, often with large, effectively autonomous, Muslim communities already in Europe in which their terrorists will be able to hide, whose actions will quickly draw the ire of the non-Muslim community, and repercussions against members of the Muslim community as a whole —an aside to this will be the mass of Arabian and Egyptian refugees seeking religious and political asylum in Europe and North America, that will serve as a river in which MFT operatives will be able to insert, much like Communist Vietnamese infiltrators who used the boat refugee exodus during the 1970s and 1980s to keep tabs on South Vietnam refugees and attempt improving public opinion of the new Socialist Republic of Vietnam. The end result will be an increase of volunteers to the MFT fronts.
Emboldened by successes in the Middle, and with increased membership, the MFT will focus more on Asia and specifically Southeast Asia: Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Replicating the building of unrest in the Middle East, strike units will focus on causing the governments to remove further freedoms, such as restricted travel and curfews, by attacks on the government.
The MFTs will ferret out possible “fanatic true/old believers” of the Koran in governments to join in their cause as moles for furthers actions directed at increasing failures to respond, and over respond, to tactical events of the MFT: all directed toward recruitment and disruption.
Most likely they will work through a staggered strategy: take one country, say Malaysia, turning it into a nation of extreme Islamic fundamentalism, like and attentive to the direction of Iran. Then, like in what will become the new Saudi Arabia or Egypt, and in the past in Nicaragua almost successfully so by Raul Castro with the Sandinista, the MFT will feed insurgencies in neighboring countries.
As the fanatical Islamic movement is so counter to American and northern European culture, the last to fall will be the United States, Canada, UK, Germany, Scandinavia and Russia.
The genie was let out of the bottle when we didn’t go right into Afghanistan immediately after our success against the Soviet Union, and rebuild the land to its past peaceful grandeur of the late 1950s to the early 1970s (stealing a potential terrorist breeding ground from not only Al Queda, but also Iran), much as we could have kept the present problem with the Salvadoran gangs (so strong and violent they’re now taking on the world), by funding heavy reparations in Central America after our successes in the war against Communism there, too.
Now we’re confronted with keeping the genie from overtaking the rest of the world…With this possible global outcome, how important do you think a success and attainment of peace for the US, its allies, and the present ruling government in Afghanistan is?